Phil Tetlock

Born in Canada, Phil did his undergraduate work at the University of British Columbia and his doctoral work at Yale University (PhD, 1979). He currently serves on the faculty at the University of Pennsylvania as Annenberg University Professor with appointments in Wharton, psychology, and political science. Previously, Phil was on the faculty of the University of California, Berkeley (Mitchell Endowed Chair in the Haas School), and The Ohio State University (Burt Endowed Chair in psychology and political science). He has also been a Fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences (Stanford) and the Russell Sage Foundation.

A prolific author, Phil has published roughly 200 articles in peer-refereed journals and edited or written 10 books. His most recent book, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, won numerous awards including the Woodrow Wilson Foundation Award and the American Political Science Association. Based on data from 20 years of his research, he establishes clearly that predictions by so-called experts are no better than even a simple statistical prediction model.

Phil has received many awards from professional and scientific organizations including the following: American Psychological Association, American Political Science Association, American Association for the Advancement of Science, International Society of Political Psychology, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and the National Academy of Sciences.

His research programs have explored a variety of topics, including the challenges of assessing “good judgment” in both laboratory and real-world settings, and also the criteria that social scientists use in judging judgment and drawing normative conclusions about bias and error.